WGC-Workday Championship Picks, Odds and Predictions

Feb. 24, 2021

Matt Blunt
Golf Expert
VegasInsider.com

It's a blank canvas for most of the field this week at the WGC at the Concession, as the usual trip to Mexico for this event had to be shifted.

It's a venue that a select few in this field have competed at before though, as the 2015 NCAA Championships were held at The Concession. The individual winner of that event was none other than Bryson DeChambeau (+1850), and with the way his mind works, giving him an upper hand in course history like that over most of the field might turn out to be scary.

If you're looking for more of a longshot this week that competed in that NCAA event years ago, Thomas Detry (+25000) is another guy in this field with a great finish (T3) at that collegiate event.

Courses always get the toughest setup for when PGA Tour players roll into town, and on a track where minimal knowledge is out there – both for the players themselves, and bettors – this WGC event should bring a very interesting leaderboard along with it.

Golf Betting Resources
2021 WGC-Workday Championship

• Date: Thursday Feb. 25 - Sunday Feb. 28, 2021
• Venue: The Concession Golf Club
• Location: Bradenton, Florida
• Par-Yardage: 72, 7,474 yards
• Defending Champion: Patrick Reed
• TV: NBC, Golf Channel
• Vegas Expert Picks
• Betting Odds

With this being a Jack Nicklaus design, you can expect every hazard and undulation on every hole to be where it is for a reason, as it's laid out as a course that's heavy on the risk-reward game theory idea guys will continually have to ask themselves.

Having length here is going to be an advantage for some given the yardage these 18 holes cover, if depending on the wind direction each day, the four Par 5's here could have the majority of them become reachable.

As it is, one of the four should see the majority of the field going for it in two shots regardless of conditions, but if you are one of the bigger names with plenty of boom in the big stick – Dustin Johnson's, Jon Rahm's, Bryson DeChambeau's of the world – separating themselves from the field with long, accurate shots is likely possible here.

Given the depth of this field and the no-cut nature of the event, chances are nobody will run away with the win, and with length going to be an overall concern in terms of capping the field, guys with the ability to be accurate with their wedges and/or scramble quite well could be the ones with a chance at it in the end as well.

Most trouble at a Nicklaus course will make sure it's penal though, and with water out there on two thirds of the holes, and nearly 75 bunkers out there lurking, the eventual winner will need all aspects of their game going for all four rounds at this venue in Florida.

Bryson DeChambeau has had past success at this week's venue, winning the 2015 NCAA Championship at The Concession.

WGC-Workday Championship
Betting Odds

Dustin Johnson (+600) enters the week as the favorite once again, but this time he's got company in the under +1000 range, as Jon Rahm +850 is just behind him.

It's a who's who in today's golf world beyond that with nearly all the best players in the world in this field, and there plenty of positive arguments behind backing nearly all of them.

All depends on what you land on in terms of how you see the course playing for these guys and whether or not overall length becomes the distinct advantage it could be.

DeChambeau's winning score as a collegiate player was -8, so pending the setup we could see some low numbers, but I would expect to see the winning score somewhere in the -12 to -14 range, assuming 3 or 4 under is a quite common daily score for the 70+ guys in this field.

WGC-Workday Championship Contenders

• Dustin Johnson +600
• Jon Rahm +850
• Xander Schauffele +1400
• Rory McIlroy +1600
• Justin Thomas +1800
• Patrick Cantlay +1800
• Tyrrell Hatton +1800
• More Golfers
• (Odds Subject to Change)

With names such as Xander Schauffele (+1200), Patrick Cantlay (+1600), Rory McIlroy (+1650), Tony Finau (+1800), DeChambeau (+1850), and Justin Thomas (+1850) all apart of that range between +1000 and +2000, an event with a guaranteed four rounds for all gives bettors plenty of great options at the top.

Yet, in a rather rare occurrence for me at least, it's actually one of the two names at the very top that gets this week's selections started.

Golfers to Watch - WGC-Workday Championship
Top Picks and Predictions

Contender to Back
WGC-Workday Championship

Jon Rahm +850

Having backed Jon Rahm in his 72-hole matchup against Cantlay in Los Angeles last week, following his action over the weekend was something I probably did more intently than most given how many shots he trailed Cantlay by going into Saturday.

A final round 66 by Rahm was very impressive though, as the round vaulted him up into a T5 for the tournament, has him feeling good about where his game currently sits coming into this week, and more importantly, was enough to be Cantlay in the head-to-head.

But it's building off strong final rounds like that that tend to be something I'll lean on with guys in deep fields like this where statistically there isn't going to be much separation at the top of the odds board.

Rahm had the best Sunday of anyone outside of Tony Finau last week, but given Finau's final fate, I'm not sure there will be any momentum carry-over for him this week, at least not enough to consider him on the card at +1800.

Rahm's price is a little steep and I'm not exactly thrilled with it (waiting to see if there is a better in-play price during any of the four days is always an option), but he's still priced that high in a high quality field like this for a reason.

He's got a handful of slight little advantages in his game over many of the other guys priced just behind them – whether he's a little longer, a little smoother with the putter etc etc – and in a tournament where I know I'm guaranteed four full rounds from Rahm, I am a little more willing to lay the chalk so to speak.

Mid-Range Value
WGC-Workday Championship

Victor Hovland +2250

Victor Hovland's another guy it might look like it's a little steep of a price on him given the depth of the field, but again, every guy up here at the top of the board has got the price they do for some sort of reason, and in Hovland's case, it's got to be his overall ball striking ability which has quickly become one of the best out there on Tour.

He's also another guy like Rahm who used a strong Sunday at the Genesis to vault up the leaderboard, shooting 67 on Sunday to finish T5 as well.

Hovland was 1st in that field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee for the week, and 7th in SG: tee-to-green, which is really par for the course in terms of what to expect from him each week.

He might not be at the top all the time, but expecting him to be in the Top 20 each week in those ball striking categories has started to become commonplace.

Finally, we can't forget that it was exactly this time a year ago when Hovland won his first PGA Tour event, winning the Puerto Rico classic in the alternate event to the WGC, and another win since then in December put him in the situation where he's in this WGC and not trying to defend in Puerto Rico.

He's a guy that everyone has a good idea of just how good his career could end up being, but should he beat a field with this type of depth early in his career, maybe even the most positive projections for Hovland's career arc may still be underselling him.

Given all the names that are all around him in price, he's a name that could get lost a bit in the selections, and that's not a bad thing in my eyes either. Getting “lost” when Hovland's last seven competitive starts have seen six Top-15 finishes (one win, five Top-5's) is hard to do, and I'll ride that current form with Hovland to stay hot.

Long Shot Pick
WGC-Workday Championship

Adam Scott +6600

Adam Scott's name was more popular last week in LA given that he was the defending Genesis Invitational champion, but the 36-hole stretch form him on Friday/Saturday (73-76) had Scott just playing for a paycheck on Sunday.

But like the other two names in this piece, Scott had a strong Sunday round in him last week (66) to make the most of his earnings and hopefully come into this week with a bit of momentum, and less pressure not trying to defend a title.

And like Hovland, Scott's strengths lie in his overall ball striking ability while his shortcomings tend to arise on and around the green. But in a tournament where nearly everyone's greens-reading memory bank is a virtual blank slate, guys who can struggle with the putter may not have that weakness hinder them as much because there is no scar tissue causing doubts before the stroke.

Now it could go the other way too on the greens with guys like Scott and Hovland to where no memory bank on how to read these greens leads to some bad misreads and some awful putting overall, but it's a risk I'm willing to take here with Scott at this price.

72 Hole Matchup to Take
WGC-Workday Championship

Sergio Garcia (-137) over Max Homa

Since backing elite ball strikers appears to be the theme this week, adding a 72 hole play with one of the finest ball strikers (Sergio Garcia) this Tour has seen in the past two decades seems to make sense on the surface to begin with.

Put him up against last week's winner in Max Homa, who clearly expressed how much that win in LA meant to him and his career, and it feels like too much is aligned not to have some sort of stake in Garcia this week.

Fading guys off a win on Tour – especially ones where wins are few and far between – like Homa is always a spot I'm looking for each week, and seeing how much the Genesis Invitational meant to Homa and his stories of growing up in the area and spending years as a gallery member there watching the game's greats etc etc.

Hard not for there not to be some sort of emotional letdown for Homa this week in a loaded field on a course he's got no significant prior knowledge on.

Garcia missed the cut in LA a week ago, but he's still had three Top 12's in his last four starts overall, and given his skill set and the spot here, the “chalk” on backing him in this head-to-head is really of no concern to me.

Unless Homa parlays last week's victory into another Top 20 finish in an even deeper field, I think we see a big fall off from him this week and hopefully Garcia can take full advantage.

Top 20 Finish
WGC-Workday Championship

Collin Morikawa +138

Might as well go full bore ahead with the approach of supreme ball strikers that can bring questions on/around the green, as Collin Morikawa generally fits that description as well.

Recent finishes of 43rd and 68th in his last two starts were enough to steer me away from any outright thoughts with him and to this plus-money price on a Top 20, but just like everyone else on this list, he's a guy that can be extremely dialed in with his irons and off the tee when he gets it going, and when he does, the putts will eventually start to drop.

Despite the tough finishes in his last two starts, I still view Morikawa as a much better player than others priced in the similar range, and with seven Top 10 finishes in 2020, it shouldn't take much for Morikawa to start clicking on all cylinders again.

How to Bet on Golf

Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.

2021 Golf Betting Schedule

Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.

Understanding Golf Odds and Bets

Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.

If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.