San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Picks, Predictions, Odds

The San Diego Padres (89-73) will travel cross country on Friday to take on the New York Mets (101-61) in game one of the NL Wild Card round. First pitch is scheduled for 8:07 PM ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York and can be viewed on ESPN.  

Updated on 12/23/2024

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SAN DIEGO PADRES at NEW YORK METS BETTING PREDICTION

The San Diego Padres finished second in the NL West division, 22 games behind the Dodgers and second in the NL Wild card standings. San Diego most recently went 2-1 SU in a series with the Giants and are 5-5 SU over their last 10 games. The offense has averaged 4.0 runs per game over that stretch, a bit below their season average of 4.35 runs per game. The bullpen has pitched well over that stretch with an ERA of 3.60 which is better than their season ERA of 3.81 (11th). The right-hander Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.70 ERA) is expected to start Friday.  

New York finished with the same record as the Braves for lead of the NL East, but Atlanta outdid them in their regular-season matchups, so the crown goes to them. The Mets swept the Nationals in their final regular-season series and are 5-5 SU over their last 10 games. The offense has been solid over that stretch, averaging 5.4 runs per game. This above their season average of 4.76 runs scored per game. The bullpen has had an ERA of 4.20 over their last 10 games which is above their season ERA of 3.57. Right-handed pitcher Max Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA) is scheduled to start game-one.  

I like the Mets at home in game one with Scherzer taking the mound. He pitched six innings and allowed five hits and two runs in his one home outing against the Padres this season. Darvish pitched in that same game and went seven innings while giving up four hits and one run. I do not think Darvish pitches as well this time around and I think Citi Field will be rocking for playoff baseball. Mets moneyline is the play here.  

Score Prediction: Mets 5, Padres 3 
Best Bet: Mets ML (-145)

SAN DIEGO PADRES at NEW YORK METS BETTING ODDS

SAN DIEGO PADRES at NEW YORK METS BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Friday, October 7, 2022
• Matchup: NL West vs. NL East
• Venue: Citi Field
• Location: Queens, New York
• Time-TV: 8:07 p.m. ET – ESPN
• Expert Picks

SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING ANALYSIS

The Padres finished 89-73 SU and 72-90 ATS this season. San Diego is 4-1 SU in their last five matchups with the Mets and 5-1 SU in their last six road games. The total has gone under in five of their last seven games when playing on the road against the Mets. Following this trend, the total has gone under in six of their last nine games when playing an NL East opponent.  

San Diego’s offense has gotten better as the season progressed and the midseason addition of Juan Soto did not hurt. As a team the Padres have a batting average of .241 (16th), on base percentage of .318 (8th), slugging percentage of .382 (22nd) and have scored 705 total runs (13th). Manny Machado leads the team in most categories with a batting average of .298 (172-578), 32 home runs, and 102 RBI’s. Right fielder Juan Soto could also be a difference maker in the playoffs with a batting average of .236 (43-182), six home runs, and 16 RBIs since joining San Diego.  

San Diego’s bullpen carried this team in the first half of the season and have been solid throughout the season. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .232 (9th), have a WHIP of 1.20 (9th), and team ERA of 3.81 (11th). Right-handed pitcher Yu Darvish is scheduled to start game one. Darvish went 16-8 SU this season with an ERA of 3.10 while giving up 148 hits, 67 earned runs, and struck out 197 batters. Darvish won both his outings against the Mets this season, each lasting seven innings while giving up a combined six hits and one run.  

NEW YORK METS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Mets finished the season with an impressive 101-61 SU record and 87-75 ATS record. New York is 8-1 SU in their last nine home games. The total has gone over in nine of their last 11 games. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in five of their last seven when playing at home against San Diego.  

New York's offense has been productive throughout the entire season. As a team they have a batting average of .259 (2nd), on base percentage of .332 (2nd), slugging percentage of .412 (8th) and have scored 772 total runs (5th). The shortstop Francisco Lindor and first baseman Pete Alonso lead the way for this offense with a combined 66 home runs and 138 RBIs.  

The Mets bullpen have dealt with injuries throughout the season but have still pitched well. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .236 (11th), have a WHIP of 1.18, and team ERA of 3.57 (7th). The right-hander Max Scherzer is expected to take the mound Friday. Scherzer went 11-5 SU this season with a 2.29 ERA while giving up 108 hits, 37 earned runs, and struck out 173 batters. In his one outing against the Padres this season, Scherzer gave up five hits and two runs in 6.0 innings of work.  

KEY PLAYERS

• SND: Juan Soto - RF (-)
• SND: Manny Machado - 3B (-)
• NYM: Pete Alonso - 1B (-)
• NYM: Francisco Lindor - SS (-)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

• SND: Yu Darvish - RHP (-)
• NYM: Max Scherzer - RHP (-)