NFL Week 4 Rewind
Week 4 of the regular season was a wild one. We had two premier teams squaring off with the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, and it didn't disappoint, going down to the bitter end. We might have also seen a changing of the guard in the Steel City, as rookie QB Kenny Pickett might have ended the short-lived era of QB Mitchell Trubisky. And we saw a video game-like game in the Motor City, as the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions combined for a total of 93 points.
The UNDER had outpaced the OVER in each of the first three NFL weekends, but the OVER-UNDER split 8-8 after the Sunday Night Football showdown in Tampa, and the low-scoring Monday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers game. Overall, the UNDER is still cashing at a 38-24-1 (61.3%) clip. The UNDER is 9-4 (69.2%) through 13 primetime games so far through Week 4.
NFL WEEK 4 RESULTS
WAGER (Favorites-Underdogs)
Straight Up (SU): 10-6
Against the Spread (ATS): 8-8
WAGER (Home-Away)
Straight Up (SU): 8-8
Against the Spread (ATS): 8-8
WAGER (Totals O/U)
Over-Under: 8-8
NFL SEASON RESULTS
WAGER (Favorites-Underdogs)
Straight Up (SU): 36-27-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 27-36-1
WAGER (Home-Away)
Straight Up (SU): 33-30-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 33-30-1
WAGER (Totals O/U)
Over-Under: 25-38-1
BIGGEST UNDERDOGS TO CASH
Seahawks +3.5 (ML + ) 48 @ Lions 45
Titans +3.5 (ML + ) 24 @ Colts 17
Falcons +2.5 (ML + ) 23 vs. Browns 20
Jets +2.5 (ML + ) 24 @ Jets 20
BIGGEST FAVORITES TO CASH
Eagles (-7.5) 29 vs. Jaguars 21
Buccaneers (-5.5) 41 @ Buccaneers 31
Chargers (-5.5) 34 @ Texans 24
Bengals (-3.5) 27 vs. Dolphins 15
Cowboys (-3.5) 25 vs. Commanders 10
BIGGEST ROAD FAVORITES TO CASH
Chargers (-5.5) 34 @ Texans 34
Chiefs (-5.5) 41 @ Buccaneers 31
BIGGEST BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Man, if you were laying the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers, had them on the money line or you bet the UNDER, things certainly took a turn for the worst in the final minute.
The New York Jets fired out to a 10-0 start, but the Steelers rattled off 20 unanswered points, thanks in large part to head coach Mike Tomlin finally coming to his senses and pulling the plug on the Trubisky experiment, rolling with the first-round pick and hometown hero Pickett instead. The rookie tossed a pick on his first NFL pass attempt, yes. But he also provided a spark, running for both touchdowns in the second half.
The Jets fought back, however, as QB Zach Wilson, making his season debut after a preseason arthroscopy on his knee, hit WR Corey Davis for a touchdown halfway through the final quarter to slice the lead to 20-17. It got worse. Much worse for side bettors of the Steelers, and UNDER bettors.
The Jets moved it down the field, capping off a drive with RB Breece Hall scoring on a 2-yard plunge to make it 24-20. That officially flipped the UNDER to an OVER with just 16 seconds left in regulation, and the Steelers were unable to connect on a Hail Mary at the buzzer. That's about as bad of a beat as you'll get in NFL.
STILL PERFECT - ATS
DOLPHINS, FALCONS, LIONS IMPROVE TO 3-0 ATS
The Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions entered Week 4 with a perfect 3-0 ATS mark. The Dolphins fell by the wayside in a 27-15 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, suffering their first non-cover. The Lions were also tripped up in a high-scoring home loss as a favorite against the Seattle Seahawks, 48-45. The Falcons? Well, they did it again, topping the Cleveland Browns 23-20, moving to 4-0 ATS as a 2.5-point underdog.
The Falcons were almost covering wire-to-wire, too, trailing only 13-10 near the end of the third quarter, and 20-17 with 9:51 to go in regulation. The Falcons came back both times, riding a pair of Younghoe Koo field goals to a straight-up victory.
The Falcons will look to keep it rolling in Week 5 in a road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And in you're looking ahead, the Falcons are 0-3 SU/ATS in the past three meetings with the Bucs, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven overall in the series.
ALWAYS REMEMBER YOUR FIRST
RAIDERS, SAINTS EARN FIRST COVERS
The Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints entered Week 4 as the only teams in the NFL recording ATS losses in each of their first three games this season. Well, they're officially in the cover club.
The Raiders not only grabbed a cover, but won outright as 2.5-point favorites against the AFC West Division rival Denver Broncos and the overrated QB Russell Wilson, posting a 32-23 win. Those holding Raiders tickets can thank RB Josh Jacobs, who carried the offense on his back in the second half.
As far as the Saints are concerned, they had to go overseas to pick up the cover. While New Orleans didn't win outright in their game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London against the Minnesota Vikings, it covered a 4.5-point number in the 28-25 loss. The Saints nearly forced overtime, too, but PK Will Lutz hit the upright and the crossbar on a long attempt at the buzzer, as the Saints lost by the narrowest of margins.
AFC NORTH BLACK AND BLUE
THREE TEAMS LEAD AT 2-2 SU
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski and Ravens head coach John Harbaugh each outsmarted themselves, relying upon analytics rather than old-school common football sense, and it cost their respective teams in Week 4. The Browns lost to the Falcons 23-20 on the road in a game it should have won, while the Ravens had the opportunity to go up on the high-octane Buffalo Bills, but Baltimore frittered away a red-zone chance rather than taking the go-ahead field goal opportunity, turning points into a fourth-down interception in the red zone.
The Bengals, Browns and Ravens are each tied for first place at 2-2 SU, and only Baltimore has a winning record against the number, going 2-1-1 ATS.
ALL ABOUT THE UNDERS
BENGALS, COLTS 4-0 TO THE UNDER
The Bengals and Indianapolis Colts have cashed the UNDER in each of their four games to date. The San Francisco 49ers have a chance to join the club Monday night against the Los Angeles Rams. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 3-0 to the UNDER heading into SNF, but their game against the Kansas City Chiefs ended up going way OVER.
The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants each cashed the UNDER in Week 4. While both teams had an OVER, they did have a push against each other, and currently have 3-0-1 mark to the UNDER.
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