NFL Week 6 Rewind
The Week 6 schedule started off poorly yet again, as the Washington Commanders-Chicago Bears Thursday Night Football game on Amazon Prime Video was about as exciting as expected, i.e., it wasn't. In fact, it's hard to believe, but there were actually fewer points in this TNF stinker that last week's Indianapolis Colts-Denver Broncos bummer.
If you enjoy betting UNDERs, this was the week for you. We saw the UNDER cash in 10 of 13 games, while, oddly enough, the only two teams to hit the UNDER in every game this season, the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts, each went OVER in their respective games.
It was also a good day to bet underdogs, as 'dogs ended up winning outright in seven of the first 13 games Thursday and Sunday.
The UNDER went a perfect 3-0 in primetime after the bummer in Chitown, and after the Sunday Night Football showdown between the Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles, and the low-scoring MNF game between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers AFC West game which went to OT. The UNDER is 14-5 (73.7%) through 19 primetime games so far through Week 6.
NFL WEEK 6 RESULTS
WAGER (Favorites-Underdogs)
Straight Up (SU): 7-7
Against the Spread (ATS): 6-8
WAGER (Home-Away)
Straight Up (SU): 8-6
Against the Spread (ATS): 7-7
WAGER (Totals O/U)
Over-Under: 3-11
NFL SEASON RESULTS
WAGER (Favorites-Underdogs)
Straight Up (SU): 54-39-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 39-54-1
WAGER (Home-Away)
Straight Up (SU): 49-39-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 45-49-1
WAGER (Totals O/U)
Over-Under: 35-58-1
BIGGEST UNDERDOGS TO CASH
Steelers (+9.5, ML +355) 20 vs. Buccaneers 18
Jets (+7.5, ML +285) 27 @ Packers 10
Giants (+5.5, ML +200) 24 vs. Ravens 20
Falcons (+3.5, ML +160) 28 vs. 49ers 14
Patriots (+3, ML +125) 38 @ Browns 15
BIGGEST FAVORITES TO CASH
Rams (-10) 24 vs. Panthers 10
Eagles (-4.5) 26 vs. Cowboys 17
Bengals (-3) 30 @ Saints 26
Bills (-2.5) 24 @ Chiefs 20
Colts (-2.5) 34 vs. Jaguars 27
BIGGEST ROAD FAVORITES TO CASH
Bengals (-3) 30 @ Saints 26
Bills (-2.5) 24 @ Chiefs 20
BIGGEST BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
This was a tough one to watch. The Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants game opened with a total of 43.5, while closing at 46. Depending upon when you made your bet dictates how your afternoon went if you were an OVER or UNDER bettor.
Things got off to a REALLY slow start if you were playing the OVER. In fact, the first quarter was scoreless, and the game remained so until RB Kenyan Drake ripped off a 30-yard touchdown run to make it 7-0 in favor of the road team. PK Justin Tucker capped off the first-half scoring with a field goal to make it 10-7 heading to the break.
The third quarter saw Tucker and PK Graham Gano exchange field goals, making it 13-10 in favor of the Ravens heading to the final quarter.
In the fourth, Baltimore extended their lead to a 20-10 with a TE Mark Andrews touchdown, but the Giants answered with a pair of scores from TE Daniel Bellinger and RB Saquon Barkley, with the latter coming at 1:43 left in regulation. OVER bettors who made their wager shortly after the open were already in the clear, but those who bet later in the week and up to close still needed help.
The Giants got the ball back after a late fumble, as New York had an instant red-zone opportunity. The Ravens still had all of their timeouts left, so the G-Men had to run plays. After the first timeout, Barkley ran the ball from the Baltimore 8, and appeared to be headed for the end zone on the right side. Upon picking up the first down, he declined to go in, instead electing to take give himself up while staying in bounds.
While the television commentators lauded Barkley's smart play, OVER bettors and fantasy players were hurling expletives at their television sets. Had the Giants went up 31-20, not only would the OVER have cashed, but the Ravens would have had just over a minute to make two scores. Considering it had 20 points in the first 58-plus minutes, it likely wasn't happening. Anyway, QB Daniel Jones took two knees and ran out the clock, and the UNDER came in at most shops.
SIX SHOOTER
FALCONS IMPROVE TO 6-0 ATS
The Atlanta Falcons hosted the San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, and it looked like Atlanta's unbeaten ATS record would be in serious jeopardy. The 49ers had won eight consecutive trips to the Eastern Time Zone, including last week's rout of the Carolina Panthers. San Francisco also had posted a 10-2 ATS mark in the past 12 trips East.
The Falcons ended up doubling up the 49ers by a 28-14 score as 3.5-point underdogs, moving to 6-0 ATS. If that's not impressive enough, the Falcons have been the underdog in each of the six games, and three of the wins have been outright, with this victory being the biggest of them all. Atlanta is now 3-1 SU across the past four outings, too, and the UNDER has connected in three in a row for Atlanta after the OVER started out 3-0.
MEDIOCRE NORTH
AFC NORTH, NFC SOUTH ARE UGLY
The AFC North and NFC South feature each of their teams at .500 or worse so far through six games. The Panthers, who fired head coach Matt Rhule prior to their game against the Rams in Los Angeles, sit at 1-5, but just two games out of first place. We highlighted the Falcons above, and how they're cover kings. The rest of the division, not so much, as the Buccaneers are 2-4 ATS, the Saints are 2-4 ATS and the Panthers are 1-5 ATS.
The situation is even tighter in the AFC North. The Ravens and Bengals are in first place at 3-3, with Baltimore holding the tiebreaker after a 19-17 win on SNF last week. The Browns and Steelers are in the basement at 2-4 SU, with the Browns holding a tiebreaker after topping the Steelers on TNF a few weeks ago. Cincinnati is the only team with a winning record ATS, going 4-2, while Baltimore and Pittsburgh are 2-3-1 ATS, and Cleveland is 2-4 ATS.
POWERHOUSE AFC EAST
BILLS LEAD COMPETITIVE DIVISION
The Buffalo Bills won a showdown on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, improving to 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS. All four teams in the division are .500 or better, and no team has a losing record against the spread.
The surprising Jets were the biggest underdog to win outright in Week 6, topping the struggling Green Bay Packers 27-10 as a 9-point underdog, going 4-2 ATS. The Patriots are 3-2-1 ATS overall, while the Dolphins slipped to 3-3 ATS.
RARE OVERS
BENGALS, COLTS FINALLY GO OVER
The Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts were each 5-for-5 to the UNDER heading into Week 6. In a week which featured 10 UNDER results in 13 outings, you would think the UNDER connected again for each team.
However, Cincinnati got well down on the bayou, as LSU alums QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja'Marr Chase returned to the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans for the first time since winning the national championship for the Bayou Bengals. They were the enemy on this day, but they were amped up, and helped the Bengals to a 30-26 road victory over the Saints.
The Colts were blanked by the Jaguars in Week 2 down in Jacksonville, but this game was completely different. Indianapolis host the Jags are won a come-from-behind 34-27 shootout, including 21 total points in the fourth quarter for the easy OVER.
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