NFL Total Plays for Week 11

Sometimes, deciding which team to bet on in a specific sporting event becomes so confusing that you throw that contest out and start looking at the next game on the board. If that happens, take some time to check out the totals and maybe you’ll see the wagering opportunity from a different perspective.

For Week 11, I'm providing my top three 'over-under' picks for Sunday's card.

1. Under 39.5 - LA Rams at NO Saints
2. Over 48.5 - Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
3. Over 28.5 Team Total - Kansas City Chiefs Team

LA Rams at NO Saints Under 39.5

There’s always been a sports betting trend to bet against last year’s Super Bowl winner early in the season. This year the Rams have taken that to a whole new level. Since topping the Bengals, this team is 2-6-1 against the spread.

New Orleans isn’t much better at 3-7 ATS and they’ve been consistent in losing games no matter which of their three quarterbacks they put behind the center. Heading into this one they’ve only scored more than 20 points once in their last six weeks of action.

The Rams are averaging a little over 16 points a game but in their last six games, it’s actually a wee bit over 14 each week. They’re gaining less than 70 yards a game on the ground and their quarterbacks have been sacked 31 times with a QBR of 84.2.

When you look at the last Saints’ record, you’ll notice that, unless you’re the Raiders, you’re going to score at least 20 points when you play New Orleans. Dennis Allen’s team has scored fewer points in all of its last three games culminating with the 10 they put up in Pittsburgh.

This game has one of the lowest totals on the board for Sunday and that’s never a bad thing if you’re betting the Under. The house can only go so low on the number for a total before it loses its advantage and for this game, 39.5 still seems too high.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings Over 48.5

Dak Prescott handed the game to the Packers last week after his team had a 14-point lead in the second half. That game in Lambeau was the sixth game out of seven that saw the Boys put up at least 22 points.

When you’re betting on the NFL, often the word crazy doesn’t suffice as an adjective. That game against Buffalo showed exactly that. Minnesota now is tied for the best record in the league, although they are only 4-4-1 ATS.

Dallas is averaging a little over 23 points a game but has scored 24 or more in their last three, including 49 versus the Bears. When he’s not busy selling mattresses, Dak likes playing football with his teammates and throwing interceptions.

Minnesota is scoring a little over 25 points a game, but they’ve topped 28 at home in four of their last five. Kirk Cousins may get bashed for his winning record in primetime games, but his team gets over 248 passing yards every week.

This total opened at 47 and has ticked up a hook but that’s probably still too low. Of course, when it comes to handicapping, sometimes probably is all you get. Look for these two to score early, the Vikings have a TD in the first quarter in five of their last six, and often.

Kansas City Chiefs Team Total Over 28.5

Kansas City travels to the Chargers for Sunday Night Football and it’s a key game in that AFC West race. These two already played in primetime earlier in the season and this should be a great matchup. A Chiefs win here, and they control the division.

Los Angeles is one of those few NFL teams that have a better ATS record than their overall standings. Part of that is beating the teams you’re supposed to beat but having Justin Herbert behind center doesn’t hurt.

Patrick Mahomes III leads the league in scoring and they’re a yard behind Buffalo for total yards per game with over 423. They’ve scored 20 or more in six straight and put up 81 in their last two road games against the Buccaneers and 49ers.

Will the Chargers be able to keep up with the Chiefs? They did in the first meeting in that 27-24 loss at Arrowhead. However, both the Seahawks and Jaguars put up over 30 on this defense. Neither of those teams has the Chiefs quarterback.

Those 28.5 points seem like a lot but if the Chiefs show up, they could have a good chunk of that before halftime.

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