UFC 306 Odds Getting Buzz, Ahead of Pricey Sphere Card

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

UFC 306 odds are getting at least as much action as the organization's typical high-profile events. That's despite some consternation about ticket prices at the Sphere plunging for what's also being deemed Noche UFC, in celebration of Mexican Independence Day.

However, as Saturday approaches, it appears more people want to shell out for the first live sporting event at the extraordinarily unique Las Vegas venue. And again, odds for UFC 306 have bettors plenty enthused, whether they're attending or not.

Here’s what you need to know about betting trends for UFC 306 odds, with insights from multiple oddsmakers. And to get the most out of your UFC wagers, use our BetMGM bonus code.

UFC 306 Odds

Noche UFC Bets Abound

Some observers feel UFC 306 odds lack star power, and perhaps that's what held back ticket sales. However, ticket sales – and prices to attend at the spectacular Sphere – are rebounding heading into the weekend.

And Andrew Babakitis, UFC oddsmaker for The SuperBook, isn't seeing any letdown in wagering. The Noche UFC card is headlined by a bantamweight title bout between champion Sean O'Malley and top-ranked contender Merab Dvalishvili.

"From our perspective, this card is a very big one. Sitting here on Friday night, we already have similar handle to what we write on these pay-per-view cards at the end of Saturday," Babakitis said. "There are also only 10 fights on the card, which is less than normal. Obviously, expectations on the name value on the card were very high, and it might not have hit those high expectations.

"But handle-wise, there hasn’t been a difference. The money we’ve written would say people are very excited."

Troy Machir, senior manager of digital content for BetRivers, echoed Babakitis' sentiments.

"There isn't a noticeable difference in Friday betting between this card and the last several numbered pay-per-views. If anything, there's not as much money on the non-main-event fights as normal, even though the ticket volume is still there.

"I chalk it up to the main card not being very strong, outside the main event."

Added BetMGM UFC trader Alex Rella:

"It's the same amount of action we usually see up until this point. Nothing different or out of the ordinary on our end. We’re seeing the usual volume. Most of the public money comes in on Saturday."

Competition From Canelo

UFC 306 odds aren't the only fight game in town Saturday night. A couple miles from the Sphere, at T-Mobile Arena, Mexican superstar Canelo Alvarez defends his super middleweight title belts against Edgar Berlanga.

"This UFC card doesn't really hold up to a Canelo fight," Machir said. "While Canelo is the only draw on the boxing card, it is Canelo, and it's Mexican Independence Day weekend. The UFC has two title fights, but only one of the four fighters is a draw, and nowhere close to Canelo.

"The UFC event being at the Sphere is probably the biggest talking point about UFC 306."

That said, it's a pretty big talking point. Thanks to the Sphere's massive wraparound screen, Noche UFC fans way high up – far from the action – should be treated to outstanding visuals of fights throughout the night.

To be fair, the fans will need that video wall. The venue seats about 20,000 and has quite a steep incline. For those in the relatively cheap seats, the fighters will be practically indistinguishable in the octagon.

Regardless, Babakitis expects strong reviews once Saturday night wraps up.

"It's a good card, but it’s the same as UFC 300, when people had absolute unreal expectations. It’ll play out, and people will say how great the card was after the fact," he said.

Competitive Card

Along with the obvious spectacle of the Sphere, UFC 306 odds also get a boost from a competitive main card.

"The three main fights are all relatively close prices, all less than -200 favorites, which is a huge help," Babakitis said.

The main event is actually the closest of those three fights. As of Friday night, O'Malley is a -132 favorite to Dvalishvili's +112 underdog price at The Superbook. The co-main is at Alexa Grasso -140/Valentina Shevchenko +120, with Grasso's women's flyweight belt on the line.

Prior to those two fights, Diego Lopes is -175 and Brian Ortega +155 in a featherweight matchup.

At BetMGM, O'Malley and Grasso are both -140 favorites as of Friday night, with Dvalishvili and Shevchenko +115 underdogs.

"This pay-per-view event has more close fights on paper than any other event I can remember, especially with two title fights at the top," Rella said. "O’Malley is a clear fan favorite. We’ve taken nearly three times as much action on the champ. This has been a recurring trend for O’Malley in recent fights.

"The action in the women’s title fight is a lot closer. Early bettors loved Grasso, but Shevchenko backers have been coming on strong in recent days to keep it to a narrow gap."

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson